1. Is there a slowdown? My impression is that business for the builders is generally good and getting better. High gas prices do not seem to be deterring the high level of buying. The Swiss lathe importers—Citizen, Star, and Tsugami, are crazy busy. For equipment like Hydromats and multi-spindles, which are heavily focused on automotive, there is a bit of hesitancy. 2. Can the Japanese companies get inventory? Not enough. Toyota is hurting along with the others. Hyundai is out to claim 10 points of market share. In machinery, the importers tend to order far ahead. Certain sizes are scarce, like…
Author: Lloyd Graff
It strikes me that Americans are still trying to recover from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder from the 2008-2009 deep recession. Banks are still looking backward at the housing shock and are afraid to loan to good risks, even based on 2001 values. A large percentage of buyers today are cash buyers, often from foreign countries, or first-time buyers who don’t have to sell a house to buy one. Banks are also being closely scrutinized by examiners who have the usual government employee bias—avoid mistakes so everybody covers their behind twice, thus gumming up the lending process. The press has a…
PMTS 2011—middle of Passover, beginning of Easter, and spring break, but the machining guys turned out, at least those from the Big Ten area, to see who would make their Final Four if they were buying a lathe (or software or steel or cutting tools etc.). The PMPA sponsors this assembly of the oil stained with the Gardner Publishing group, and it ran as efficiently as a Japanese commuter train with about the same amount of pizazz. Attendance was much better than 2009, but that’s comparing a parade and a death march. George Bursac of Star called it a “nice…
The offer of $20 billion being discussed by Johnson & Johnson Inc. to purchase Synthes Inc., based in Pennsylvania, Switzerland and Germany, highlights the value of Swiss CNC machining today. J & J bought DePuy, the orthopedic implant pioneer, located in Warsaw, Indiana, in 1998. They evidently like the medical device business with millions of aging baby boomers potentially looking for spinal disc surgery and knee and hip replacements. The disturbing diabetes epidemic, fostered by America’s obesity explosion will mean more amputations and usage of Synthes surgical tools. I have no idea whether J & J is overpaying, but for…
With the PMTS show coming up next week in Columbus, Ohio, this is what I want to find out: 1. Graff-Pinkert, our machinery business, has noticed a distinct slowdown in both inquiries and sales over the last two months. Is this just us, or is it industry-wide? 2. How narrow is the Japanese pipeline of new machine and automotive components? Can the builders get fresh inventory out of Japan? 3. With the dollar falling out of bed versus the euro, how much are the Europeans raising prices, and are they able to ramp up production to meet demand? 4. Does…
The battle of Madison, Wisconsin and Columbus, Ohio is the first major fight of America’s new Civil War between the Governors and the Unionists. Wisconsin’s Scott Walker pushed through a law curtailing collective bargaining for state employees. John Kasich of Ohio forced similar legislation through in Ohio. Now the unions are mounting a counterattack through demonstrations and a full court press in the press. It is unclear who will win this war. The first sneak attack portrayed the Unionists as spongers who have perverted the political system by co-opting politicians with gluttonous campaign contributions and then exacting tribute from them…
by Lloyd Graff I had a hankering for a croissant and decided to drive over to Nielsen’s Bakery, a local bakery I don’t go to often, but they made nice croissants. All I found was a letter on the window saying they had closed after 21 years. The letter read like a note to a few insider friends and I could not really understand what it said, except that they were closing. The letter confirmed to me why I had not patronized them for years. I always felt I was an outsider there, a tolerated visitor interrupting a local Kaffeeklatsch…
Housing prices supposedly dropped in February 3.1%, prompting the doomers to predict the dreaded double dip recession. Yahoo! and the New York Times trumpeted the news like it was Armageddon. But I see it as good news for the economy and for America. The losses that are being taken now on housing mean that sellers are starting to accept the drop in values, which actually took place two years ago. The market is begging for the inventory of unsold homes to reprice to the level that will unlock the wallets of real buyers, be they speculators, renters, or buyer-occupants. I…
The tragedy in Japan is horrific from a human standpoint, but as a parochial businessman in the machining realm I’m also interested in how it affects my operation. It appears that most Japanese machine tool builders suffered minimal damage because they are located far from the epicenter of the earthquake. Citizen, Mori and Tsugami say they did not incur significant damage. Mazak has a facility in Sendai that was damaged, but it is not a big production plant. One builder that did incur damage is Citizen-owned Miyano, which has a plant closer to the site of the quake. Though nobody…
The New York Mets ownership group is trying to sell 25 percent of the team because they are being sued by the attack-dog lawyer representing the victims of Bernie Madoff. The lawyer, Irving Picard, claims that the hedge fund operators who own the Mets realized huge “profits” from Madoff and should have known he was running a Ponzi scheme. This brings up an idea I have been thinking about for a long time, the “fiction of money.” In our Graff-Pinkert & Co. machinery business we are often asked to do appraisals of machinery, usually for financial institutions or consultants. We…