My son-in-law, Scott, bet a friend a fancy dinner that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden would be the next president. No odds were given.
I silently pledged that I would not write about the upcoming presidential election, but this contrarian bet gave me the entree to discuss politics without needing to pick a team. Scott is fairly apolitical, very smart and works in the artificial intelligence field, but when he told me about the bet several weeks ago, I considered it briefly and then told him to prepare to pick up the check.
But now I believe he is probably going to win his bet.
Yesterday was such a perfect day to write about the unthinkable. Republican candidates were debating in Milwaukee without Donald Trump, who was flying to Atlanta to turn himself in on another indictment and pay his $200,000 bail to travel on his way.
Fun and games.
***
I am a fan of Scott Galloway, a wealthy entrepreneur, professor of marketing at NYU, and the host of the podcast the Prof G Pod. Recently, he did a show on why Donald Trump will take a plea bargain in exchange for stepping out of the race. His rationale is “the math.”
As the indictments pile up, New York for hush money to Stormy Daniels, Georgia for attempting to bully the electors and admonish the Secretary of State to “find him 11,000 votes,” the stashing of secure documents in his bathroom in Florida, and the Federal Special Prosecutor’s January 6th indictments.
Trump, with his legal team, will likely win many of these cases, but the math argues that he has at least a 50-50 chance of losing some of them.
Trump is 77 years old, obese and would not fare well in a federal prison. Federal prosecutors do win most of their cases.
Donald Trump is a shrewd guy. He is also not afraid to step away from a losing hand, judging by his many bankruptcies and folding the New Jersey Generals football team. Faced with an election he is likely to lose, thus eliminating his opportunity to pardon himself and the chance to live out his days playing golf and collecting rent checks, he would have a strong temptation not to gamble on his legal future.
But why would the prosecutors ultimately offer him a plea bargain without jail time in exchange for him stepping out of the race?
Because they do not want to risk Trump winning and pardoning himself or a different Republican president pardoning him to keep order in the streets.
This is the gist of Scott Galloway’s podcast. I find it believable.
***
Okay, what if Trump takes a plea deal? What about Biden?
The poll numbers show him to be an unpopular president. A personable, centrist, youngish Republican would quite likely beat him head to head.
Democratic leaders and financiers would be terrified at his very likely loss in the general election. The only Republican Joe Biden would almost surely beat is Donald Trump. The Democratic party would be panicked if Trump is on the sidelines.
You also have the Hunter Biden indictment and the possibility it would land on Joe Biden’s head. A plea deal for Trump most likely means a plea deal for Hunter.
Add the age factor and the demographics, and neither Joe nor Donald will be inaugurated in January of 2025.
Do you agree?
Question: Would you advise Trump or Biden to pull out of the race?
12 Comments
Article three of the 14th. Amendment states the fact that he should be disqualified from any federal or state office. Two expert professors says he is guilty of treason.
And MANY experts say he is not!
It is really a sorry state when Trump appears to be the victim and has the most integrity of all of the candidates on either side. They are all bought and paid for *************. How do all of these criminals go to DC broke and leave millionaires set for life?
Thank you for the morning yuk-yuk…
Trump has integrity – I’ll be laughing all the way through my morning jog.
Both Biden & Trump make me cringe. They are both terrible humans that have little to no moral character. We need new faces on both sides to give the American people a real choice.
And the swamp stays as full as ever.
More senators and congressmen buying stocks the day before they pass a law and selling at a heinous profit. Reference the Wayfair decision and Avalara stock if you think I am hedging.
No one on that stage has the stones to even think about fixing these things, let alone the proven ease at which a mail in ballot can be fraudulently filed. Reference the fired election official in Milwaukee that just wanted to prove that it works if you think I am hedging.
Do your best
Please address the question. We know Trump and Biden are terribly flawed people. But will either win the presidency or step aside before the election?
I sure as heck hope that is the case, but I don’t see that happening. I’m of the opinion that both will power on, even though a majority of the electorate want neither. As to why, ego maybe for both?
I could see Trump hanging all of his lawyers and advisors who are named in the suites out to dry. If the prosecution builds a good case, he will say he was just following the advice of his counsel who he didn’t know were breaking the law at the time.
If Trump’s the nominee I’ll be happy to cast a vote for him. But I really like DeSantis and Ramamswami and in some ways they are more visionary, positive and electable than big-mouth Donald.
It’s amazing that manufacturing folks don’t/can’t see the absolute destruction of manufacturing in the USA by over-regulation and outsourcing ALL to China. Wake up for heavens sake…! The leaders of the Democratic Party (and admittedly a few Republican leaders) are completely out of touch and sold-out to restricting ALL manufacturing. In that regard China completely owns our butts and we better turn that around fast!
The ‘climate change’ agenda IS hysteria and is ABSOLUTELY a scam and a religion. Our sun controls the temperature of the earth and planets IMMENSELY more than carbon fuels and Co2 emissions. Try to mitigate the sun cycle folks and see how far that gets us. Media, big tech and ‘woke’ corporations are working together to shut down free speech from knowledgeable scientists who agree. Do your research and check out Bjorn Lomborg’s writings…
Sticking to the question and topic:
OH YES!!!
Biden is the most inspiring person in the history of the world !!!
The First Black President of The United States garnered some 69 MILLION VOTES!
Quite an accomplishment!
President Barack Husein Obama ran quite the campaign.
As Joe biden said:
“I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and CLEAN and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that’s a storybook, man.”
Barack was out there campaigning and working his butt off for each and every vote.
Visionary, Articulate, and Inspiring. Promising to “Fundamentally transforming the United States of America.” to his own idea of “UTOPIA” or a dystopia? perhaps we mis-heard?
Then came the MOST ARTICULATE, AND INSPIRING Candidate in the history of the world!
People would drag themselves over broken shards of glass to cast a vote for the first Black president, in the History of these United States of America!
Then,
Without even campaigning, secluded and living in a basement, he somehow had his finger on the pulse of the nation from his FIFTY YEARS in office fixing ALL of the concerns of the American people.
President Biden blew President Obama away by more than TEN MILLION VOTES!
The people knew from Joseph Robinette Biden Jr’s many pearls of wisdom over the years:
“In Delaware, the largest growth of population is Indian Americans, moving from India. You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.”
Garnering support for the Clinton crime bill Biden stated:
“We have predators on our streets that society has in fact, in part because of its neglect, created,” said Biden, then a fourth-term senator from Delaware so committed to the bill that he has referred to it over the years as “the Biden bill.”
“They are beyond the pale many of those people, beyond the pale,” Biden continued. “And it’s a sad commentary on society. We have no choice but to take them out of society.”
In the speech, Biden described a “cadre of young people, tens of thousands of them, born out of wedlock, without parents, without supervision, without any structure, without any conscience developing because they literally … because they literally have not been socialized, they literally have not had an opportunity.” He said, “we should focus on them now” because “if we don’t, they will, or a portion of them, will become the predators 15 years from now.” Biden added that he didn’t care “why someone is a malefactor in society” and that criminals needed to be “away from my mother, your husband, our families.”
“The Grand Canyon, one of the Earth’s nine wonders, wonders of the world, literally. Think of that, you know, it’s amazing, an enduring symbol of America to the entire world.” NINTH?
“Play the radio, make sure the television, excuse me, make sure you have a record player on at night,” Biden said, “make sure that kids hear words, a kid coming from a very poor school, or a very poor background, will hear four million fewer words spoken by the time they get there.”
“As Barack says, a 3 letter word: J-O B-S Jobs! ” {1,2,3,4?}
“I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts,”
“We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the THING,” not exactly what the framers meant – but you all know the “thing”…
I could go on, and on and on…
But like I started,
Biden is the most inspiring person in the history of the world!!!!
Look at his wonderful family
His son Hunter
Knows nothing about the evils of Gas and Oil, but got a multi million dollar job with a Ukrainian energy company,
Perhaps he was trying to persuade them to go solar?
And somehow there was ten percent for the “big guy”. not sure what that meant…
There was some sort of investigation, but then VP Biden brags about having the investigator fired or the foreign aid will be cut off.
And his son’s art career is stellar – a million dollars a pop.
I wish I knew how to sling paint on canvas like that.
And his son’swarmth
Consoling his brothers widow INTIMATELY before the body is cold.
all while navigating the pregnant hooker with his daughter…
Such a loving individual.
Curious why is THAT granddaughter not invited to White House events? Asking for a friend.
And lest us not forget his experimentation with crack cocaine.
I am sure he advises his father on the evils of drug use…
Yet this EIGHTY YEAR OLD SCHOLAR and plagiarist, (he knew a good speech when he heard it) Inspired an entire nation from a basement bunker to cast in excess of ELEVEN MILLION votes more than his predecessor received, to win the presidency.
And those votes ALL arrived precisely at Three AM in the morning after election day.
Truly Miraculous!
You cannot make up such a Story Book Tale.
Totally Heartwarming.
Regarding the entire climate agendas
YES
OMG the ICE CAPS ARE MELTING
AARGH
😮
yes they are
on Mars
and we only have ONE SUV up there
It is all about control
As technologically savvy individual individuals, we know that IF CO2 is the issue, Nuclear power is the answer!!!
BUT THAT IS EVIL AND NO GOOD
So it is all about control!
Back to the question:
Who will be our next president?
Either Joe Biden will step down for the betterment of the PARTY, or be removed!
When I say removed, I speak of the 25th Amendment, not CIA style, like JFK.
Another reason the vote for President Donald John Trump, is that he promised to finally release the JFK files!
VP Kamala Harris will receive a HIGH paying job with a Democrat “non for profit” to just go away and create more venn diagrams.
Governor Newsome , one of the few seemingly likable democrats will come in to “save the day” from the the current President who cannot construct a cohesive statement or sentence.
If the malfeasance of election tampering is kept under control, President Donald John Trump will win with the greatest legitimate landslide in the history of this country !!!
Pray for better days ahead as I do.
and
Stay Safe!!!
Rick in NYC: I guess it was unrealistic to think this would be a respectful discussion. It seems you can’t even ask a simple question without getting bizarre comments like that.
The bet is not totally irrational, but I say it won’t happen that way.
Biden’s strength is his ability to unite voters to beat Trump. Right now, most Democrats will unite behind any candidate with a pulse simply because of the threat Trump poses. However, Trumpism is embedded in most of the Republican candidates, so even if Trump pulls out, Biden still packs a punch as the non-flashy incumbent. Biden’s low poll numbers? Democrats (myself included) would normally embrace a younger candidate, but we do not view these as normal times, so we have no real problem with Biden running.
” A personable, centrist, youngish Republican would quite likely beat him head to head.”
That doesn’t sound like anyone in this GOP field. For obvious reasons, most of them won’t confront the former president’s conduct, and some even champion his worst instincts. This sad fact demonstrates why, for both parties, Donald Trump is the real reason we can’t have nice things.