My son-in-law, Scott, bet a friend a fancy dinner that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden would be the next president. No odds were given.
I silently pledged that I would not write about the upcoming presidential election, but this contrarian bet gave me the entree to discuss politics without needing to pick a team. Scott is fairly apolitical, very smart and works in the artificial intelligence field, but when he told me about the bet several weeks ago, I considered it briefly and then told him to prepare to pick up the check.
But now I believe he is probably going to win his bet.
Yesterday was such a perfect day to write about the unthinkable. Republican candidates were debating in Milwaukee without Donald Trump, who was flying to Atlanta to turn himself in on another indictment and pay his $200,000 bail to travel on his way.
Fun and games.
I am a fan of Scott Galloway, a wealthy entrepreneur, professor of marketing at NYU, and the host of the podcast the Prof G Pod. Recently, he did a show on why Donald Trump will take a plea bargain in exchange for stepping out of the race. His rationale is “the math.”
As the indictments pile up, New York for hush money to Stormy Daniels, Georgia for attempting to bully the electors and admonish the Secretary of State to “find him 11,000 votes,” the stashing of secure documents in his bathroom in Florida, and the Federal Special Prosecutor’s January 6th indictments.
Trump, with his legal team, will likely win many of these cases, but the math argues that he has at least a 50-50 chance of losing some of them.
Trump is 77 years old, obese and would not fare well in a federal prison. Federal prosecutors do win most of their cases.
Donald Trump is a shrewd guy. He is also not afraid to step away from a losing hand, judging by his many bankruptcies and folding the New Jersey Generals football team. Faced with an election he is likely to lose, thus eliminating his opportunity to pardon himself and the chance to live out his days playing golf and collecting rent checks, he would have a strong temptation not to gamble on his legal future.
But why would the prosecutors ultimately offer him a plea bargain without jail time in exchange for him stepping out of the race?
Because they do not want to risk Trump winning and pardoning himself or a different Republican president pardoning him to keep order in the streets.
This is the gist of Scott Galloway’s podcast. I find it believable.
Okay, what if Trump takes a plea deal? What about Biden?
The poll numbers show him to be an unpopular president. A personable, centrist, youngish Republican would quite likely beat him head to head.
Democratic leaders and financiers would be terrified at his very likely loss in the general election. The only Republican Joe Biden would almost surely beat is Donald Trump. The Democratic party would be panicked if Trump is on the sidelines.
You also have the Hunter Biden indictment and the possibility it would land on Joe Biden’s head. A plea deal for Trump most likely means a plea deal for Hunter.
Add the age factor and the demographics, and neither Joe nor Donald will be inaugurated in January of 2025.
Do you agree?
Question: Would you advise Trump or Biden to pull out of the race?