By Lloyd Graff
Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research spoke at the Precision Machined Products Association Management Update and gave his predictions about the next couple of years. Beaulieu is not just any dismal soothsayer. He specializes in looking at the manufacturing world and had correctly predicted the dramatic recession we are just poking out of today.
He is quite confident we are in a sustained recovery, which will gain momentum through next year. He sees 2012 as a seesaw year.
The most surprising aspect of his talk for me was his prediction of significant inflation by 2011. Beaulieu suggested an inflation rate of 6.5 percent next year, pushed by a surge in commodity prices.
Beaulieu sees commercial lending by banks gradually easing. In his view, banks want to lend but are being restrained by government examiners who are working at cross purposes to the avowed intent of the administration to expand credit for small business.
Beaulieu sees us at a classic inflection point of opportunity to buy residential real estate. In his view, we have six months to get a historic discount on real estate. His admonition was to buy a condo or a house either to use or rent out as soon as possible because both price and interest rates are going up soon.
He had some interesting political and economic views as well. He sees Russia as a crumbing mess with a dying population and extremely low birthrate (1.1 children per woman). He sees the Euro headed back to parity with the dollar. He recommends buying gold and sees copper prices reaching for the moon because of Chinese demand.
His top categories for growth are medical, food, energy (he likes wind), security and water. He is very bullish on India.
The best thing about Beaulieu’s talk—he didn’t hedge his bets.
Question: Are you considering buying residential real estate in the next six months?