Industry Scuttlebutt

If Mitt Romney does decently in Iowa and wins New Hampshire he has the Republican nomination. If Newt Gingrich wins Iowa and is respectable in New Hampshire he has a chance to be the nominee. If Newt is the nominee, Barack Obama gets four more years to fight with Congress and Carterize his presidency. Anybody for a third party?

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Bud Pohlman died last week. He saw the future of high production turning in the Hydromat rotary transfer machine manufactured in Switzerland by Pfiffner. In his way he was a visionary in the screw machine world in America.

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Looking at the positive, manufacturing is skyrocketing. Seemingly headed for a 14 million car pace. Automotive suppliers are going nuts trying to keep up. The unemployment rate is down sharply. Pundits are confused. Retail sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday were out of sight. What’s going on? People are working part time, on contract, off the books, etc., screwing up the traditional employment/unemployment numbers. The statisticians have not caught up. Revisions are all over the place. Don’t trust the employment numbers. Look at the sales. People are gaming the government and it’s hard to blame them because the government does not pay us back fair value. There are a lot of people not paying their mortgage. Some of them were standing in line Thanksgiving night waiting for the $200 flat screen for their next apartment paid for with cash generated in a part-time job (off the books).

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Measured over many metrics like unemployment, health insurance coverage, percentage of residents with a high school diploma, debt ratings, etc. California is the worst governed state and Wyoming is the best. Would you rather live in San Francisco or Cheyenne?

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Interesting anomaly. The United States has many positive trends now. Lower rate of violent crime, less family debt, lower rate of abortion, less drug addiction among young people. The country is repairing itself while government is in disrepair. But not everywhere. In Chicago we are seeing Rahm Emanuel take over from Rich Daley, transforming the perception and probably the reality of governance almost overnight. The public employee unions are backpedaling, the Teachers Union hardly knows what hit it, the patronage corruption system is being dismantled, and the budgets are being chopped. It looks like we elected the wrong Chicago politician to be President.

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Look for more businesses being bought and sold in manufacturing in 2012. As skilled workers get harder to hire, new vendors harder to vet, and China less of a factor, baby boomers are going to be selling to companies and groups with access to credit. I look for the earnings multiple to rise significantly this year on buyouts and boomers taking advantage to solve succession and retirement desires.

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What does America do if (when) Iran gets a nuclear weapon or gets to the position they could build one in a week? This is the military and foreign policy problem that we will face soon and there seemingly is no credible way out. Even a revolution in Iran may not stop the momentum toward nuclearization. I cannot imagine a U.S. preemptive strike, but Israel might move with or without an American wink.

The big fear is not so much that Iran attacks Israel as much as they might pass the bomb to Hezbollah, Hamas or Al Qaeda. That is a Jack Bauer scenario. Now we really need a prescient CIA.

Question: Would you vote for Newt Gingrich?

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17 thoughts on “Industry Scuttlebutt

  1. AvatarMiles Free

    Intellectually, I respect Newt. He did a great job when he was Speaker of the House. However his positions on gun control are toxic to sportsmen and will keep the guys like me from getting behind him. Gun control is a showstopper issue for those of us who eat meat that doesn’t always come from the store. He is the Centrist that I think could help us get back to sanity and functionality in Washington D.C., but not at the expense of my shooting rights.

     
  2. AvatarGeorge Cobb

    I eat meat and would worry more about a second term Obama administration than Newt. “Fast and Furious” is more than enough evidence of this administration’s regard for the rule of law.

    I disagree that Romney will have the nomination wrapped up if he does well in Iowa and wins NH. I believe Florida might be the telltale.

     
  3. AvatarNoah Graff

    Wow Charlton, er I mean Miles.:) I didn’t realize that hunting was so important to you that it alone was a deal breaker. Not the first time you’ve surprised me. But I’ve heard shooting is pretty fun (often on this site).

     
  4. AvatarMarc Klecka

    Newt is part of the problem. Romney is the solution. Mitt is a proven leader. He is the right man for this perfect moment in our time. Newt would get destroyed in the general election. If Newt gets the Republican nod, another 4 years of Chicago politics will destroy what we hold dear.

     
  5. AvatarBruce Renwick

    Lloyd,
    Why are you so sure Obama would win over Gingrich in a general election? Newt is very smart and extremely good in a debate, he would make Barack look like an idiot! (My opinion) Newt almost singlehandedly turned the tides on the Dems in Washington in 1994 and won back the congress for the first time in 40 years, what the Republicans did with that is their own fault. I will not vote for Romney of Obama, they are cut from the same cloth. If it comes to these two, we should vote for a third party.
    As for Iran. The world is not to worry about a “nuclear Iran” the Israelis would not and cannot allow that to happen. They will no doubt attack and destroy the Iranian dream of being a nuclear power just as the have with Iran and Sierra. The world may act outraged when they do but everybody will really be relieved when it happens.

     
  6. AvatarJake Worden

    I am a conservative, and therefore cannot (and will not) vote for Newt. It was the same situation the last election – I would not (and did not) vote for McCain. What you may find interesting, is that us “right wing conservatives” as the media likes to portray us, voted for Chuck Baldwin, from the Constitution Party. Chuck who??? EXACTLY. You never heard of him on the media, nor was he invited to any of the debates. Yet, Chuck Baldwin received more than 7.5 million votes… actually finishing in 3rd place in the Presidential election.

    Why do I point this out? Because if you listen to the media, and fail to do your own homework, you are lead to believe there are only two choices – Republican or Democrat. So the majority goes to the poles thinking “Well, at LEAST he’s better than Obama” – and we end up with another liberal (or as the media refers to them a “moderate” Republican).

    These 545 (plus) members of the House and Senate are all either Democrat or Republican, and these two parties have completely salted away our Constitutional rights, and progressively infringed upon our liberties for the past 100 years. They have both raised our taxes, and grown our government exponentially. (Our founding fathers would be sick – we’ve allowed our government to become, what they fought to escape) In summation, if you keep electing Democrats and Republicans into office, and are expecting a different results, then you are – by definition – insane. Don’t drink the media’s Kool Aid… Do your own research, draw your own conclusions, and vote based on YOUR opinion – not the media’s.

     
  7. AvatarScott Carpenter Sr

    To answer your question…No, to a third party! Us conservatives (Tea Party) are more than we thin,k and we will and continue to, hold our elected representatives responsible. If Newt gets the nomination he will also be held accountable as would Mitt or anyone else.

    If we don’t get this debt and government control “under control” it won’t even matter what kind of gun we have. And I am a member of the NRA and I hunt!

    I am also the right wing extremist the main stream media disparages because I want to leave a God fearing country with a limited government to my children and your children. And I am crazy enough to think that it is a moral outrage that we allow the murder of nearly 4000 babies a day.

    So Don’t worry about Newt or whoever the nominee is even though he has a solid track record of reducing gov’t spending and red tape, let’s get some good people in the house and senate toat will drive the conversation.

    Scott Carpenter Sr

     
  8. AvatarSteve Horn

    Coming from a publication that endorsed Obama in 2008, I think you are seriously compromised in saying that Newt couldn’t win. If you’re getting your information from the media that is rather well documented that they’re in the Democrates camp with a permanent house. So lets think of the American people and what they feel. Most Americans believe they are conservative, by well over 50%. Obama has shown that he isn’t a leader and the American people know it. Does Newt or Romney have bagage for sure? Obama is a blamer not a doer! The American people now realize that Obama has no ability to lead, and I believe they’d vote for anyone running against Obama.

    So heck yes I’d vote for Newt. Along with every other true conservative running.

    The real question is what was Lyold thinking when he endorsed a man that has never ran anything in his life? That’s the truth.

     
  9. AvatarJim Crowley

    If Mitt could not beat out a candidate like McCain what makes you think he can win over Obama?
    By the way how did McCain do in the last election? Mitt is the favorite of the RNC, just like Doyle and McCain, Mitt is just as progressive as Doyle & McCain. I think any of the other Republican candidates would be an improvement. At least Newt would embarass Oboma in any debate.

     
  10. Avataramerican-american

    First, let me say for the record, I am pro gun. I am a card carrying member of the NRA even though I have not owned a gun since I lost my BB gun in the creek as a kid. I could not believe Newt was as anti gun as he is being made out to be so I did my own research. I did find the connection and here it is:

    In an interview on Meet The Press, Rep. Gingrich stated “I’m very much in favor of stopping people who engage in violence against their spouses from having guns. I think that’s a very reasonable position.”

    Now, would someone here please tell my what is wrong with that position?

     
  11. AvatarJACK FROST

    Lloyd: It isn’t a question of whether or not Newt can beat Obama, because he is not the threat. He is the leader of the ” community organizer cult” which elected him in the first place. We have an electorate that is more interested in JOB BENEFITS than they are in jobs. They want to share your money. And they want the government to take it from their families so that they don’t have to beg for it. The student debtors want you to pay off their debts, while contributing absolutely nothing to make this a better country. I will vote for the person that can beat Obama and stop our slide into nothingness. This time it is critical. I was born in 1920. I worked my way through college, I served my country and I watched two liberals destroy this country, one during the 30s and one in the 2008.

     
  12. AvatarDon Bentley

    I would vote for whomever is the viable alternative to Obama. I was disillusioned enough to believe the possibility of a 3rd party when I voted for Perot, but have come to recognize that the average American shouldn’t be allowed to have a pet, much less vote in an election of leaders. Jefferson warned what would happen when the right to vote was given with no thought of civic literacy.

     
  13. AvatarMiles Free

    Dear American American,
    Did your research uncover Mr Gingrich’s record on either the Lautenberg Amendment which makes your gun rights VOID for certain misdemeanors? Does your card carrying NRA status make you a fan of Nancy Pelosi’s Criminal Safe Zones Act- which assures an unarmed populace in certain locations? ( think of it as OSHA for Armed Criminals) Those of us who do actually exercise our 2nd amendment rights were offended when Newt cast his support for the DeLAuro Amendment which proposed severe penalties for possessing laser sights in certain circumstances.
    Newt is a brilliant man who usually manages to talk out of both sides of his mouth, such as condemning the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Bailouts while “consulting” for Fannie Mae. He claims to be progun, but his record shows quite a different picture.

    The last time People said “Any body but…” we got Chicago Politics installed in the White House. I’m going to be a bit more discriminating with my vote. A free society is based on property rights.The second amendment assures that we can defend our property.

    I was prepared to save the life of my wife and my self one day when aman tried to break into my home. He had murdered a store clerk in a robbery and was being pursued by police. They arrested him before he broke through our door. This is life experience. My pursuit of happiness might have been cut short had I not been prepared and the police not arrived just in time.

    I have a litmus test- if they trust me to be responsible with my firearms, I’ll trust them to be responsible and govern. The second amendment gives me the right / duty to think so.

     
  14. AvatarRon

    Yes, I will vote for Newt! He is brilliant and the best debater of any Republican. Obama will be unable to debate him. Newt has great ideas to solve problems while Obama only blames anybody but himself.

     
  15. AvatarJohn

    I rather think that Paul is right not to be worried by a nuclear Iran. Politicians (and military strategists) haven’t yet caught up with the idea that nuclear weaposns are a purely defensive weapon: you have them,nobody messes with you, but you can’t use them agressively, or everyone will come down on you in retaliation.

     
  16. AvatarTed Carter

    Not everybody thinks that the Republicans have the average working mans best interest at heart. I’m sure most of you pine for the moronic policies of the previous administration, however here in the form of a pasted excerpt from a David J Rothkopf blog are a few things that Obama has done well in the realm of promoting economic well being in this country.

    “A couple years ago the president made a bold-seemingly out of the blue-call for the U.S. to double it’s exports over the next five years. With growth averaging over 16 percent a year since then, they are on the path to do so. The U.S. Export-Import Bank has broken all records in terms of financing of U.S. exports. Three trade deals got through a divided Congress-against substantial opposition from within the president’s own party. The TPP process is moving forward. Trade laws are being enforced more aggressively. U.S. pressure on China regarding its currency is beginning to have an effect. U.S. active involvement in European debt discussions has been forceful and played a meaningful role in moving them forward (admittedly working against strong internal EU headwinds). The U.S. has actively begun a program to attract foreign investment in the U.S., a long-overlooked area of great importance. Exports are contributing heavily to recent growth. The president’s Export Initiative is working beyond what anyone had any reason to hope was possible. ”

    But I’m sure your quick to poopoo these facts and go back to wallowing in your conviction that Barak Obama is out to destroy the nation somehow (ridiculous).

     

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