Yesterday, I started my workday by returning a phone call to customer in Italy as soon as I finished my home workout. I had read their email to try to distract myself while doing wall squats.
Later I spoke with people in Czech Republic, Germany, California, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New York, and emailed others in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Albania, and probably other places. Most of the people were making parts or peddling iron like myself.
Customers often ask me how Graff-Pinkert’s used machinery business is doing, and they ask me how I think the manufacturing economy is doing. After all, I’m in contact with manufacturers worldwide, and of course, I’m “the journalist.”
It’s hard to make generalizations about the machining world’s ecosystem. The majority of customers tell me business is at least stable. Many say they made money in 2020 or at least held their own. When they gush about their success in 2020 I always joke to them, “damn, I’m in the wrong business!”
Anecdotes from customers are more useful barometers for gaging the state of the machining economy than looking at the day to day events of our own business. I’m sure my fellow dealers will attest that the business is a rollercoaster because of it’s illiquidity. There could be no cash flow for weeks, and all of a sudden three big deals happen in a day. Suddenly the economy must be on an upswing!
You have to be very patient if you’re a used machinery dealer. My dad likes to say that often deals are like fruit, you just have to wait for them to ripen before they are ready to harvest—sometimes years! God willing, yesterday we finally sold two beautiful CNC multi-spindles that have been ripening in our warehouse for several years. They were built in Germany, traveled to Spain, then to Texas, then to Chicago, and now if all goes well they will go back to the place they started from. I hope I’m not jinxing the deal by writing this. Until we have received compensation for them, it’s not a sale.
Right now we have three multi-spindles, almost as old as me, ready to ship Mexico. Two other multi-spindles, older than me, we are hoping will go to Australia. There’s also a sweet Swiss machine I hope is bound for Europe.
We have a tool and cutter grinder that we are quoting to companies in China, Mexico, the United States, Spain, Brazil and Turkey, and the supposed value seems to fluctuate dramatically from country to country—and not exactly how one would predict. We don’t know what the sell price should be. It’s constant internal debate.
That was my Tuesday (leaving out quite a few details). I think the day gave me a decent survey of the international turned parts industry. I’ll reiterate, it’s important to listen to a lot of different people to get a feel for the industry. I can’t go by what one person says because I hear so many diverse views. I can’t totally trust my own business’s day to day vibe either because, I, like everyone, live in my own bubble. Lots of our customers say business is great right now, and as I write this, 5-10 good deals seem like they are on the verge of breaking. But right when I think I understand something, or a deal seems great, or a deal is about to happen, or a deal is going flop, or my favorite ice-cream shop will have the flavor I’ve been waiting for, things take a turn in an unexpected direction—not necessarily a bad one though.
One more thing. Shameless self-promotion–the Doosan TT1800SY in this blog’s email blast ad is a real find. You won’t find treasure like this on your typical Wednesday!
Question: How do you feel the machining economy is doing?