There is a common thread when it comes to success in baseball, business, and poker. You must have the guts and the strength to walk away from bad bets. You must admit mistakes, accept that they are part of life, and courageously walk away. The Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox are both in first place on September 1, 2020. This may be the first time that has happened in a hundred years. The Cubs had the courage to rebuild a mediocre team when new ownership brought in new management with Theo Epstein in 2011, who had successfully rebuilt…
Author: Lloyd Graff
Like desert marigolds flowering out of nowhere, 4 million square feet of new buildings are going up simultaneously this week in the primarily African American South Suburbs of Chicago where I live and work. Twenty miles north of here in Englewood, where my dad grew up and attended High School, people are shooting at each other every night and connecting with disturbing accuracy. The daily carnage is staggering and overflowing into the expensive Magnificent Mile of North Michigan Avenue, leaving it looking like Beirut’s downtown. Amazon loves the South Suburbs. They already have built half a dozen fulfillment centers in…
I had a very informative talk yesterday with a member of the machine tool brotherhood who is diversifying his portfolio into real estate, specifically Airbnb rentals in the Charlotte, North Carolina, area. I thought Airbnb was in trouble because nobody was traveling out of fear of the pandemic, but he had a different view. He moved to Charlotte two and a half years ago from Chicago, where he had grown up and worked for two decades. His plan was to buy units he and his wife could manage themselves, saving any management fees. He wanted spots that would demand a…
Chicago is appalled by the disgusting and brazen looting of stores like Gucci and Nordstrom’s on its Magnificent Mile. Our Mayor, Lori Lightfoot, is furious and humiliated that her city’s elite shopping area has now been ransacked several times by bands of young thugs that communicate by cell phone, coordinating when to strike and who to hit first. They come by car and train and overwhelm the police so they can grab clothes, electronics, and booze. There is good camera surveillance, so the authorities can pick up many of the looters later if they are inclined, but the State’s Attorney,…
The automotive world is churning these days. New cars are creeping out of the showrooms, but used cars are going bananas. CarMax stock has doubled since April. Yesterday’s announcement by Ford that CEO Jim Hackett is stepping down should come as little surprise after his 3-year tenure saw Ford’s stock plummet 39%. His predecessor, Mark Fields, lasted only 2 years. Ford’s big plus has always been its F-150 pickup, and it is reintroducing the Bronco, with 150,000 pre-sales to position itself against the Jeep Wrangler. Hackett was an outsider who was recruited from furniture maker Steelcase. His successor, Jim Farley,…
We just recorded the biggest gain in stock prices for any quarter since 1998 with American unemployment at unprecedented levels. You don’t need to read the obvious in this blog, so let’s talk Yeezy, Kanye West, and Gap. Gap stock rose 42% in one day last week when Kanye West announced he was designing a clothing line with his Yeezy brand on it, exclusively for Gap for 10 years. Gap’s value jumped $2 billion dollars with the news. Being no fan of hip hop music, but mildly interested in West because he grew up near where I did on Chicago’s South…
My wife Risa and I will celebrate 50 years of marriage this Sunday. It sounds like an awfully big number. I don’t feel old enough for that number, and Risa looks like 45 or 50 on a bad day. Less than half of the adults in the country are married today, but for Risa and I it was a natural fit. I started talking about marriage a few weeks after we met in January of 1969. She was 17 years old and a freshman at the University of Michigan. I was a graduate student, recently back from military training. Risa…
I believe that within a year or two we will look back at the period we are experiencing today as one of huge growth and opportunity. And for many, a time of miserable pain. The incredible bounce-back of the NASDAQ stock index into positive territory for the year is indicative of optimism in American business by the people who control the levers of big money. This is not an opinion that many of my 75 year old age group who have managed to survive the pandemic so far, seem to share. With 70 to 80% of the deaths among my…
“If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” This phrase is attributed to Abraham Maslow in his book, The Psychology of Science, in 1966. It relates to a cognitive bias that involves over-reliance on a familiar tool. The screw machine guy thinks he can run 150 pieces successfully on a multi-spindle, and the person who has Citizens and Stars wants to put a 20,000 piece run on several of his Swiss machines. We all tend to fall back on the tools we own or are most familiar with. I saw the downside of this phenomenon over…
Sometimes the bad guys lose. Lately, it seems like the bad guys are on a losing streak. Look at Iran. Not only did the fiendish master terrorist in a general’s uniform, Qasem Soleimani, get his just due at the hands of an American drone, but people who hate the despotic regime have been emboldened to engage in mass protests against the government. A month ago the police and army put down demonstrations by mowing down hundreds, if not thousands, in Tehran but also in other cities. They imprisoned many more, but they haven’t silenced the people. The economy is gasping…